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WERP Protocol Definition: Phase 1 (Initial OSINT Assessment)

Document ID: Deeptrek-WERP-PD-2025-01 • Date: October 23, 2025 • Author: Deeptrek | Project Guardian

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Document ID: Deeptrek-WERP-PD-2025-01 Date: October 23, 2025 Author: Deeptrek | Project Guardian

1. Objective

The Phase 1 Initial Assessment serves as a rapid, low-cost triage of a Potentially Polluting Wreck (PPW). Its primary goal is to synthesize all available Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) to generate a preliminary WERP Risk Score.

This assessment is accelerated by a Large Language Model (LLM) acting as an OSINT analyst. The output is then reviewed and validated by an expert researcher (Human-in-the-Loop 1) before being used for prioritization.

2. Methodology: OSINT Investigation & Inference

The assessment requires active investigation of historical records, maritime databases, regional bathymetric charts, and geological surveys. Where data is unavailable, the protocol requires structured inference.

Key Inference Rules

  • Location: If precise coordinates are unknown, infer from historical reports (e.g., U-boat logs, sinking reports) and document the basis.
  • Structural Integrity: If un‑surveyed, infer integrity based on Age and Sinking Trauma (e.g., >75‑year‑old vessel sunk by torpedo → “Severely Compromised/Collapsed”).
  • Depth & Seabed: Infer from regional bathymetric and geological charts.
  • Pollutants: Infer from vessel type, size, and age (e.g., a 1940s tanker assumed to carry heavy bunker fuel).

All inferences must be documented in the assessment's assumptions array for expert review.

3. Phase 1 Scoring Definitions

3.1. Wreck Condition Score (WCS)

Goal: Quantify physical vulnerability (inferred).
Formula: WCS_total = Age + Vessel Type/Size + Sinking Trauma + Structural Integrity

  • Age (0–10): Score based on years submerged.
  • Vessel Type/Size (0–10): Score based on GRT or vessel class.
  • Sinking Trauma (0–10): Score based on sinking violence (Scuttled=1 … Torpedo=4).
  • Structural Integrity (0–10): Score based on inference from Age and Trauma.

3.2. Pollutant Hazard Score (PHS)

Goal: Quantify pollutant threat (inferred).
Formula: PHS_total = (Fuel × 0.60) + (Munitions × 0.20) + (POPs × 0.10) + (HeavyMetals × 0.10)

  • Fuel (0–10): Inferred from vessel type (Tanker > Freighter > Warship).
  • Munitions (0–10): Inferred from vessel type (Warship > Armed Merchant).
  • POPs (0–10): Inferred from age and type (asbestos, PCBs).
  • HeavyMetals (0–10): Inferred from age (long‑term corrosion of hull, paints).

3.3. Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI)

Goal: Quantify environmental context (OSINT‑based).
Formula: ESI_total = Proximity to Coast + Marine Protected Area + Human Use + Ecosystem Sensitivity

All parameters (0–10) are scored using OSINT for the approximate location, assessing proximity to sensitive shorelines, MPAs, fishing grounds, and biodiversity hotspots.

3.4. Risk Prioritisation Multipliers (RPM)

Goal: Model external accelerants (OSINT‑based).
Formula: RPM_final = Thermal × Physical × Chemical

  • Thermal (1.0–1.4): Based on regional sea surface temperature charts.
  • Physical (1.0–1.4): Based on OSINT of seismicity (USGS) and storm frequency (NOAA).
  • Chemical (1.0–1.2): Based on regional ocean acidification models.

4. Final Score Calculation

WERP_Risk_Score = (WCS_total + ESI_total) × PHS_total × RPM_finalMultiplier